What Is Fundamental Analysis?
What Is Fundamental Analysis?
“Salam and welcome back. Pechlay lesson mein hum ne course ka roadmap dekha. Aaj ka sawal woh hai jo har trader k dimagh mein aata hai: **’Market Chal Kya Raha Hai?’** Aaj ka jawab hai: **Fundamental Analysis.**
Aaj ke is 10-minute lesson ka maqsad buhat saaf hai: Fundamental Analysis ki aisi simple definition dena ke aap kabhi bhoolen nahi, aur aap ko andaza ho jaaye ke aakhir professional traders har haftay, har roz economic calendar kyun check karte hain.”
To chaliye, seedhi tarah definition se shuruat karte hain.
**Fundamental Analysis ka matlab hai:** Un tamam **economic data, financial news, aur global events** ka behtareen tareeqe se mutalea karna jo kisi bhi financial asset ki qeemat par asar daaltay hain.
Yani, aap kisi bhi cheez ki asli qeemat us ki ‘Fundamentals’ ya bunyadi hadaat dekh kar lagate hain. Jaise aap kisi ghar ko khareedne se pehle us ki location, banawat ka material, aur mahool dekhte hain. Bilkul waise hi, hum dollar, euro, S&P 500 index, ya sonay ki qeemat ka faisla karne ke liye un ke peeche ke economic factors dekhte hain.
**Fundamental Analysis ek WIDE ANGLE LENS hai.** Yeh aapko pure jungle ka nazariya deti hai, na ke sirf ek darakht ki chhaal dikhati hai. Technical Analysis aapko chart par patterns dikhata hai; Fundamental Analysis aapko batata hai ke *woh pattern bana kyun hai.*”
Yeh theory mein acha lagta hai, lekin asal dunya mein kaisa lagta hai? Chaliye teen aam misal se samajhte hain:
**Misal 1: Jab Inflation Badalta Hai (Mehngai Badhti Hai)**
Sochiye: America ki inflation achanak tezi se badh jati hai. Ab Federal Reserve (central bank) sochti hai: ‘Mehngai ko control karne ke liye humein sood ki dar (Interest Rates) badhani hongi.’ Investors sochte hain: ‘America mein ab paisa lagane par zyada return milega.’ Duniya bhar ke investors dollar khareedne lagte hain taake woh America mein invest kar saken. **Nateeja: Dollar ki qeemat badh jati hai.** Dekhiye? Ek economic data (inflation) ne pure currency market ko hila diya.
**Misal 2: Jab Interest Rates Move Karti Hain**
Australia ki central bank elaan karti hai ke woh interest rates kam kar rahi hai. Ab foreign traders sochte hain: ‘Australia ke banks ab kam return dengay, to yahan paisa lagane ka kya faida?’ Wo log Australian Dollar (AUD) bech kar, kisi aur country ki currency mein chale jate hain jahan returns zyada hain. **Nateeja: Australian Dollar kamzor ho jata hai.**
**Misal 3: Jab Employment Data Acha Ata Hai (Surprise Hota Hai)**
Market umeed kar rahi thi ke America mein sirf 100,000 nayi jobs bani hain. Lekin data aata hai ke 300,000 jobs bani hain. Yeh ek **BUZZA SURPRISE** hai! Sab sochne lagte hain: ‘Waah, America ki economy to buhat strong hai!’ Confidence badhta hai, log American stocks khareedte hain, dollar khareedte hain. **Nateeja: Volatility (gird-o-baad) achanak badh jati hai, market tezi se up-down hoti hai.**”
In tamam halchal ke beech, Fundamental Analysis ka kaam ek aham sawal ka jawab dena hai: **’Market movement ka REASON kya hai?’** ‘Kyun’ ho raha hai? Technical Analysis aapko batata hai **’Kahan’** ja raha hai, lekin ‘Kyun’ ja raha hai, yeh fundamentals batati hain.
**Aur yehi woh cheez hai jo BADI INSTITUTIONS ko pasand hai.** Banks, Hedge Funds, Investment Firms… yeh log crores of rupees ek trade mein lagate hain. Woh kisi 5-minute chart ke signal par itna paisa nahi lagate. Woh hafton, mahinon, saalon ke trends mein sochte hain. Un ke liye mulk ki economy, company ka business model, global trade tensions… yeh sab dekhna zaroori hai. **Un ka volume bara hai, is liye un ka timeframe bhi bara hai.**
**Aksar Retail Traders (jaise aap aur mein) fundamentals ko nazarandaaz kar dete hain.** Hum sochte hain: ‘Yeh sab complex hai, mein to sirf chart dekh kar trade kar leta hun.’ Lekin phir jab koi bara news aata hai—jaise war shuru ho jaaye ya central bank ka bara elaan ho—to market humari samajh se bilkul ulti chalne lagti hai. Hum confuse ho jate hain, emotional ho kar ghalat trade laga dete hain, aur loss uthate hain. **Is liye confuse hona band ho, is course ka maqsad hai.**”
In tamam halchal ke beech, Fundamental Analysis ka kaam ek aham sawal ka jawab dena hai: **’Market movement ka REASON kya hai?’** ‘Kyun’ ho raha hai? Technical Analysis aapko batata hai **’Kahan’** ja raha hai, lekin ‘Kyun’ ja raha hai, yeh fundamentals batati hain.
**Aur yehi woh cheez hai jo BADI INSTITUTIONS ko pasand hai.** Banks, Hedge Funds, Investment Firms… yeh log crores of rupees ek trade mein lagate hain. Woh kisi 5-minute chart ke signal par itna paisa nahi lagate. Woh hafton, mahinon, saalon ke trends mein sochte hain. Un ke liye mulk ki economy, company ka business model, global trade tensions… yeh sab dekhna zaroori hai. **Un ka volume bara hai, is liye un ka timeframe bhi bara hai.**
**Aksar Retail Traders (jaise aap aur mein) fundamentals ko nazarandaaz kar dete hain.** Hum sochte hain: ‘Yeh sab complex hai, mein to sirf chart dekh kar trade kar leta hun.’ Lekin phir jab koi bara news aata hai—jaise war shuru ho jaaye ya central bank ka bara elaan ho—to market humari samajh se bilkul ulti chalne lagti hai. Hum confuse ho jate hain, emotional ho kar ghalat trade laga dete hain, aur loss uthate hain. **Is liye confuse hona band ho, is course ka maqsad hai.**”